Live Network Data
Bitcoin Solo Mining
Luck Calculator
Enter your miner's hashrate — NerdQAxe++, NerdOctaxe, Avalon Q — and get real-time probability, expected wait time, and your luck score. Live mempool data.
Your Mining Setup
Select miner or enter custom hashrate
TH/s
How long have you been mining? Calculates your luck score.
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YOUR CURRENT SOLO MINING LUCK
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Enter your hashrate and how long you've been mining to see your luck score.
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CHANCE / DAY
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chance per day
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EXPECTED WAIT
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YOUR SHARE
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of network
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BTC / YEAR
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JACKPOT
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if you win solo
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BLOCKS / YEAR
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expected
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Cumulative Probability Over Time1 hour
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1 day
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1 week
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1 month
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1 year
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10 years
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Solo Block Lottery SimulatorEach cell = one 10-minute block window. Will you find the block?
Hit the button to experience the Bitcoin solo mining lottery
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Solo vs Pool Mining Comparison| Metric | Solo Mining | Pool Mining |
|---|---|---|
| Income type | Lottery | Steady |
| Est. daily (USD) | — | — |
| Est. per year (USD) | — | — |
| Jackpot if you win | — | N/A |
| Pool fee | 0% | ~1–2% |
| Minimum payout | Full block · 3.125 BTC | ~0.001 BTC |
🛒 Ready to Start Solo Mining Bitcoin?
Pick up a home miner and join the Bitcoin lottery. Ships across Europe in 1–3 days.
Solo Mining FAQ
Solo mining luck measures how fortunate you are versus the statistical average. 100% means you found a block exactly when expected. Above 100% is lucky (faster). Below 100% means you've waited longer than average — but every hash has equal odds regardless of history.
A NerdQAxe++ at 4.8 TH/s vs an 800 EH/s network gives roughly a 1-in-167 billion chance per block. The NerdOctaxe at 9.6 TH/s halves that wait. Solo blocks have been found by small miners — it's a lottery with no expiry date.
Probability per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. Cumulative probability over N blocks = 1 − (1 − p)^N. Expected time = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × 10 minutes. This calculator fetches live data from mempool.space.
For steady income, pool mining is better. But many home miners love the lottery thrill: quiet 24/7 operation, low power use, and a real (if tiny) chance to win 3.125 BTC. Think of it as the world's longest-running lottery ticket.
Yes — multiple documented cases exist. CKPool tracks solo miners winning full blocks worth $150,000+. In 2023–2024 there were several confirmed events. It's extremely rare but real — and open to anyone.