Live Network Data
Bitcoin Solo Mining
Luck Calculator
Enter your miner's hashrate — NerdQAxe++, NerdOctaxe, Avalon Q — and get real-time probability, expected wait time, and your luck score. Live mempool data.
- BTC Price
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- Network Hashrate
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- Difficulty
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- Block Reward
- 3.125 BTC
YOUR CURRENT SOLO MINING LUCK
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Enter your hashrate and how long you've been mining to see your luck score.
CHANCE / DAY
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chance per day
EXPECTED WAIT
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YOUR SHARE
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of network
BTC / YEAR
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JACKPOT
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if you win solo
BLOCKS / YEAR
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expected
Cumulative Probability Over Time
- 1 hour—
- 1 day—
- 1 week—
- 1 month—
- 1 year—
- 10 years—
Bar length uses a logarithmic scale.
Solo Block Lottery Simulator
Each cell = one 10-minute block window. Will you find the block?
Hit the button to experience the Bitcoin solo mining lottery
Odds are boosted ×100,000 so the demo can show a win.
Solo vs Pool Mining Comparison
| Metric | Solo Mining | Pool Mining |
|---|---|---|
| Income type | Lottery | Steady |
| Est. daily (EUR) | — | — |
| Est. per year (EUR) | — | — |
| Jackpot if you win | — | N/A |
| Variance | Very high | Low / predictable |
| Pool fee | 0% | ~1–2% |
| Minimum payout | Full block · 3.125 BTC | ~0.001 BTC |
Ready to Start Solo Mining Bitcoin?
Pick up a home miner and join the Bitcoin lottery. Ships across Europe in 1–3 days.
Solo mine on the Mineshop pool
0% fee · No KYC. Point your miner at solo.mineshop.eu and follow your hashrate live.
Solo Mining FAQ
What is solo mining luck?
Solo mining luck measures how fortunate you are versus the statistical average. 100% means you found a block exactly when expected. Above 100% is lucky (faster). Below 100% means you've waited longer than average — but every hash has equal odds regardless of history.
What are my odds with a NerdQAxe++ or NerdOctaxe?
A NerdQAxe++ at 4.8 TH/s vs an 800 EH/s network gives roughly a 1-in-167 million chance per block. The NerdOctaxe at 9.6 TH/s halves that wait. Solo blocks have been found by small miners — it's a lottery with no expiry date.
How is solo mining probability calculated?
Probability per block = your hashrate ÷ network hashrate. Cumulative probability over N blocks = 1 − (1 − p)^N. Expected time = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × 10 minutes. This calculator fetches live data from mempool.space.
Is solo mining worth it?
For steady income, pool mining is better. But many home miners love the lottery thrill: quiet 24/7 operation, low power use, and a real (if tiny) chance to win 3.125 BTC. Think of it as the world's longest-running lottery ticket.
Has anyone solo mined a Bitcoin block with a home miner?
Yes — multiple documented cases exist. CKPool tracks solo miners winning full blocks worth $150,000+. In 2023–2024 there were several confirmed events. It's extremely rare but real — and open to anyone.